As we prepare to enter 2025, three dominant forces loom over the global economy: the inauguration of Donald Trump, the evolving role of technology, and the persistence of substantial uncertainty. Together, these forces are likely to shape the economic landscape in profound ways, influencing global trade, technological progress, and the policy environment businesses must navigate.

The shift away from globalisation.

The return of Donald Trump to the White House signals a continuation of the global trend toward protectionism and the retreat from globalisation. His administration’s policies are expected to favour transactional gain over alliances, further entrenching the idea that national self-interest trumps multilateral cooperation. This is a mistake.

However, the realities of governance differ starkly from luxuries of campaign rhetoric. Implementing many of his campaign promises may prove challenging, constrained by the machinery of American government, a divided political landscape, and economic realities that demand pragmatism. How Trump navigates these constraints will determine the extent of his administration’s impact on the global economy.

In the meantime, businesses must prepare for an era of heightened uncertainty in global trade and investment. For regions like the Asia-Pacific, where interconnected supply chains and export-driven growth are key, this shift poses significant risks—and opportunities for those who can adapt.

There will be no immediate productivity boost from AI.

Despite the hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI), there is little evidence to suggest that it will deliver a significant productivity boost in the near term. This is not a new phenomenon. Historically, the adoption of transformative technologies has been a slow process. The tractor, for example, was invented in the early 20th century, yet by 1940, only 23% of American farms had adopted it. Electricity took decades to become a ubiquitous part of industrial processes. Even as recently as 2010, just two-thirds of American businesses had a website—decades after the internet revolution began. AI appears to be following a similar trajectory.

Less than a quarter of businesses currently report having adopted AI, and even this figure is inflated by generous definitions of what constitutes “adoption.” Using tools like ChatGPT to generate content or automate minor tasks, for example, is often labelled as AI adoption, but such usage barely scratches the surface of AI’s transformative potential. Many of the tools now reclassified as "AI" are incremental improvements on existing technologies rather than groundbreaking innovations. So far, genuine AI adoption—the kind that fundamentally alters business operations or delivers substantial productivity
gains—remains elusive. Don’t believe claims to the contrary.

The labour market picture reinforces this notion. Across OECD countries, unemployment dropped below 5% in 2024, reaching its lowest level in decades. The share of working-age people in employment hit an all-time high, and wage growth remains robust. These dynamics suggest that businesses are not under immediate pressure to adopt AI or other technologies as a means of reducing labour costs and therefore improving productivity. Instead, the demand for workers continues to fuel inflation, and genuine impetus for technological transformation is notably absent.

At Humble, we have seen this dynamic play out in real time – and understand that intervention is needed if we are to shift this dynamic in a meaningful way. This year, we launched Digital Leap, a Technology Adoption Mentoring Program, on behalf of the City of Moreton Bay. The program was born out of the recognition that business leaders often lack the time, understanding, or resources to assess how emerging technologies could be applied productively within their organisations. Without dedicated support, technology adoption remains an uphill battle for most businesses.

Looking ahead, there’s little reason to expect a substantial breakthrough in 2025. Capital spending across G7 countries remains weak, and the percentage of businesses with plans to adopt AI in the coming year sits comfortably in single figures. While AI may eventually deliver a transformative impact on the global economy—on par with electricity or the internet—that reality is still far off. For now, much of the rhetoric surrounding AI is more hype than substance.

Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Path Ahead

Inflation is now under control in much of the developed world and should remain low barring any unforeseen shocks. However, the broader economic picture remains tepid. Growth is weak, even as share prices climb to record highs and unemployment reaches historic lows. While the economy may appear to be stabilising, monetary policy is far from normalised. Interest rates are at their highest levels since the financial crisis, and while most central banks have begun the process of rate cuts, there is still a considerable way to go.

As we move into 2025, interest rates are expected to continue to decline, likely nearing real interest rate levels by the end of the year. However, this trajectory is far from certain. The prospect of supply shocks or larger fiscal deficits remains a looming possibility, driven by persistent geopolitical instability. Either of these scenarios could disrupt the trajectory of monetary policy, delaying any further cuts.

So where will interest rates ultimately land? Historically, the most reliable long-term determinant of real interest rates is economic growth. And with growth looking increasingly stifled across much of the developed world, interest rates would need to fall significantly to bring monetary policy back into stimulative territory. We’ve been here before, and yet the urgency to address this fundamental need remains insufficient. Growth is essential. Without growth, we invite decline.

Why Growth Must Be A Central Objective in 2025 and Beyond

Growth is not just an economic imperative; it is a societal one. For individuals, growth represents opportunity, self-improvement, and the chance to contribute meaningfully to the world. For businesses, growth drives innovation, creates jobs, and generates the resources needed to invest in the future. And for economies, growth underpins stability, prosperity, and resilience.

The challenge is that growth is no longer prioritised in the way it once was. Political agendas increasingly favour objectives, protectionism, redistribution and so on – short-term gains that stifle growth rather than encourage it. Similarly, the hype around technologies like AI often distracts from the hard work of creating real, sustainable progress.

At Humble, we believe in the power of growth to transform lives, communities, and industries. But growth doesn’t happen by chance. It requires intentionality—a clear strategy, a willingness to adapt, and a commitment to continuous improvement. As we look ahead to 2025, the question is not whether disruption will continue—it will. The real question is: how will we respond? Will we retreat into fear and complacency, or will we embrace the opportunities that disruption offers? The choice is ours. But if history is any guide, those who choose growth—who invest in people, innovation, and adaptability—will not only survive, but thrive in the face of uncertainty. At Humble, we’re committed to helping businesses and communities make that choice, every single day.

Let 2025 be a year where growth, not fear, defines our path forward.